Bad start to a day sucks a lot.

Every morning I have to make a choice of which bus stop to go to, to catch my bus. Let's ID them as bus stop A and bus stop B.
Bus goes to A, then B... then onward to my destination (which is the train station). From my home, I can't see neither A or B. B is closer.

Now the uncertain variables.

1. Bus may be late
2. Bus may be full
3. While B is closer, there's more people at B, and sometimes the bus becomes full at A, and when it goes to B, it can't pick up any more people (this of course leaves a lot of commuters very upset).
4. To avoid 3, I often choose to walk further to the earlier stop A, allowing me to skip over the bunch of people at stop B.
5. If I'm slightly late to stop A and just happens to miss the bus, I would have been able to catch the bus easily if I had head for stop B right from my door. Of course, the bus can not be full, otherwise it won't stop anyway.
6. Sometimes, a bus is full before it even reach stop A.

anyway... I wonder if this makes a good scenario for a simulation program :\
but probably all I really need to do is to work out a list of bus timetables and decide on the time I leave my door the probability of each scenario and work it out from there.